Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Burma
Myanmar's junta is conducting a staggered election over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Michael Gomez
Michael Gomez

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and statistical modeling.